You work hard to earn your wealth. Now it's time to protect it. Learn how clean energy investments can be the best solution for you or your clients to significantly reduce your taxable income. Also, every week I publish Macro Mashup, in both newsletter and podcast format, where I dive into everything you'll want to know to make smart business and personal financial decisions. Subscribe today to get your weekly dose!
Fearless Investor Newsletter #31: The Real Driver of Markets in 2026 (It’s Not Rates)
|
Markets aren’t waiting for forecasts anymore. Inflation debates. Rate-cut timelines. Growth narratives. They’re loud—but they’re not what’s moving capital. In 2026, markets are responding to something much quieter: constraints. Energy capacity. Fiscal headroom. Labor availability. Liquidity. When a system hits a real limit, prices don’t negotiate—they reprice. That’s the lens behind this week’s Fearless Investor analysis: why forecasts feel less useful, why price action feels stubborn, and how to think about allocation when flexibility is gone. Before every major allocation, I run investments through a simple filter:
If the answer is “yes” to any of those, the risk profile changes — even if the story still sounds good. This week’s article breaks down:
This isn’t a forecast for 2026. It’s a map of the boundaries shaping it.
Paid subscribers also get access to:
Neil. |
Neil Winward - Dakota Ridge Capital
You work hard to earn your wealth. Now it's time to protect it. Learn how clean energy investments can be the best solution for you or your clients to significantly reduce your taxable income. Also, every week I publish Macro Mashup, in both newsletter and podcast format, where I dive into everything you'll want to know to make smart business and personal financial decisions. Subscribe today to get your weekly dose!
In this Fearless Investor edition, a widely accepted belief is put under the microscope: diversification as protection. More funds.More asset classes.More “just in case.” On paper, it looks prudent. In reality, many portfolios in 2026 are diversified past the point of usefulness. Over-diversification replaces clarity with complexity, making risk harder to identify rather than reducing it. Portfolios that appear sophisticated begin to behave unpredictably. Assets meant to offset each other...
Hi — This week’s MacroMashup looks at a shift most headlines still don’t know how to describe. The Pentagon is no longer relying on markets, stockpiles, or diplomacy to secure critical materials. It’s taking equity, backstopping debt, and owning the midstream of the global metals trade. The $7.4B smelter project in Tennessee isn’t a one-off. It’s the visible piece of a $20B+ sovereign metals portfolio spanning rare earths, lithium, copper, and energy-linked materials. This piece breaks down:...
Hi, The U.S. housing market looks resilient on the surface. Prices are high. Mortgage delinquencies are low. But underneath, it’s frozen. This week’s MacroMashup explains why: millions of homeowners are trapped by low-rate mortgages that become financial handcuffs the moment they try to move. Selling a 2.9% mortgage and rebuying at today’s rates quietly destroys ~$282,000 in purchasing power. That lost value is real — and unnecessary. In this piece, we walk through: • The math behind the...